El Nino is a climate phenomenon, characterized by unusual warming of waters in the Eastern Central Equatorial Pacific Ocean and typically leads to drier conditions over Southern Africa countries, including Malawi. It is one of the most important drivers of climatic variability in the country. Historically, analogue years of El Nino in Malawi include 1982/83, 1991/2, 1997/98, 2009/10, and 2015/16. According to the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS), the country expects moderate to strong El Nino conditions for a significant portion of the agricultural season; October 2023 to April 2024. The climate projections suggest high chance of normal to below normal rainfall amount over most parts of the country.

Understanding El Nino events is pivotal for planning, preparedness, adapting, immediate response, and medium-long term investments in collaborative research for the agricultural sector to withstand the adverse effects of any El Nino events. Directly, El Nino will negatively impact agricultural crop output, thereby downward affecting the country’s economic growth. El Nino-induced food shortages will likely increase food prices both in rural and urban areas, inflating general market prices, trapping households into a vicious cycle of food insecurity and poverty. Low
food consumption and limited diversified healthy diets will likely negate strides gained around national nutrition programming. Besides, vulnerable populations like persons living with disability, women, the sick, and the elderly will be hit most by the effects of El Nino as they heavily depend on agriculture for their livelihoods.

Other sectors like forests, fisheries, and water will be equally affected by the effect of El Nino. For instance, the forest restoration programs will be at stake as urban households will resort to fuelwoods as the main source of energy due to power load shedding. Strides in the fish farming will also slowdown as fishponds become drier with water stress. Water boards will also have to undertake water rationing as El Nino will result into low water supply in the reservoirs in the absence of functioning high yielding boreholes.

It is therefore imperative for the Ministries of Finance, Agriculture, Gender, Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DoDMA), National Planning Commission (NPC), and other development partners to mobilize resources to finance emergency resources and provide price stabilization mechanisms. Stakeholders should also invest in collaborative research that generates knowledge products, technologies, and innovations for cushioning households during the El Nino. Thus, existing research and experiences by prominent experts at the Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources (LUANAR), the Centers of Agricultural Research and Development (CARD), and Agricultural Policy Analysis (APA) provide a summary of ten (10) complementary points at the end of this Policy brief in Box 2.